Once allies on stage, Modi and Trump now clash over trade and Russia

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump once openly praised each other as “good friends,” symbolising a robust strategic partnership.

Highlights included mass events like “Namaste Trump” in Ahmedabad and “Howdy Modi” in Houston, attracting international attention and projecting shared populist vision.

But the relationship now appears strained, with rising tensions over trade, energy policy, and shifting US alignments.

The latest source of conflict is Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on Indian exports, accompanied by threats of further penalties tied to India’s continued purchase of Russian crude amid the war in Ukraine.

Trump argues that India profits from reselling discounted Russian oil and accused the Indian leadership of ignoring Ukrainian suffering, even as India maintains its strategic neutrality.

India's response has been firm. New Delhi dismissed Trump's media claims of brokering peace between India and Pakistan during the recent ceasefire, reaffirming that no country had asked India to halt its military response (Operation Sindoor).

India stressed that its energy decisions were guided by national economic imperatives rather than geopolitical pressure.

Further damaging the chemistry, Trump has drawn closer to Pakistan—India’s longstanding rival—by proposing mediation in Kashmir, announcing energy deals and easing trade terms.

Analysts warn this shift has unsettled India's strategic confidence. Modi had built a persona of being tough on Pakistan; Trump’s moves were seen as undermining domestic legitimacy and raising suspicion of US intentions.

At the same time, negotiators in New Delhi have tried to de-escalate the situation. In February 2025, Modi held talks with Trump in Washington — his first meeting in Trump’s second term — aiming to avert escalating trade conflict.

India offered tariff cuts across multiple sectors and flagged strategic collaboration in areas like nuclear energy, defense, and immigration policy.

Still, Indian officials and business groups see the public acrimony as more damaging than the economic impact. While economists estimate GDP impact at only a few basis points, the political fallout from a toxic bilateral tone is viewed as more serious.

Some Indian observers argue that Trump’s personal overtures toward Pakistan and repeated criticism of India’s trade stance reflect a “transactional diplomacy” at odds with India’s multipolar posture.

Alliances built on personal rapport can unravel when interests diverge. The optics of strong bonding in stadium rallies suggested unity; the reality of tariffs, conflicting energy policies, and Pakistan outreach show a more complex and volatile equation.