UN report flags India’s declining fertility rate, cites cost of living as key barrier

India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement threshold of 2.1, according to the UN Population Fund’s State of World Population 2025 report.

This marks a continuation of a steady decline—from 2.3 in 2014 to 2.0 in 2021—reflecting broader demographic changes in the country.

While India remains the world’s most populous nation—estimated at 1.46 billion in 2025—the new low fertility rate signals a demographic crossroads.

The UNFPA notes that this shift results from a combination of expanded education, increased reproductive healthcare, and women’s empowerment, enabling families to make informed choices about childbearing.

However, the report stresses that the real challenge lies in unmet reproductive goals. A UN-YouGov survey across 14 countries revealed that 38% of Indian women aged 15–49 cite financial limitations as a significant reason for having fewer children than desired, while 21% point to job insecurity, and 22% mention housing constraints.

India displays a fertility duality, with southern and urban states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Delhi consistently below replacement levels, whereas states such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand continue to report higher fertility rates.

With 68% of the population aged 15–64, India still holds a notable working-age advantage, though an ageing demographic—7% aged 65 and above—points to shifting societal needs.

UNFPA’s Indian representative, Andrea Wojnar, emphasized that progress in education and reproductive health has reduced maternal mortality and empowered women. But she noted institutional gaps: healthcare access, affordable childcare, stable jobs, and gender equity remain critical to actualizing fertility preferences.

Globally, fertility is declining as a trend: average births per woman declined from around 5 in 1950 to approximately 2.25 today, with projections indicating a continued descent toward replacement levels by 2050.