What is El Nino Effect and Why EAM Jaishankar Warned of a Crisis in Coming Months: Explained

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has warned that the world could face a “major food crisis” in the coming months, pointing to disruptions in grain shipments, fertiliser shortages and the possibility of a very strong El Nino adding pressure to an already fragile global food system. His remarks came amid continuing geopolitical conflicts affecting energy, fertiliser and food supply chains. For India, the warning is particularly important because the country has just gone through a poor 2026 southwest monsoon, while El Nino is expected to remain a significant climate factor into the coming months.

But what exactly is El Nino effect? How can a change in ocean temperatures thousands of kilometres away affect Indian farmers, food prices and eventually household budgets? The answer begins in the Pacific Ocean.

What is El Nino Effect?

El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon in which the surface waters of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. In simple terms, imagine a huge section of the Pacific Ocean becoming warmer than it normally is. That extra heat changes the movement of air and moisture around the world. Those changes can influence rainfall, temperatures and weather patterns far away from the Pacific. This is why El Nino can affect countries that are thousands of kilometres away from where it begins. For India, one of the biggest concerns is the monsoon.

The Indian summer monsoon supplies a large share of the country's annual rainfall and is particularly important for agriculture. When monsoon rainfall is inadequate or arrives at the wrong time, farmers can face difficulties in planting and growing crops. El Nino does not automatically mean that India will have a drought every time. But historically, it has often been associated with weaker Indian monsoons.

The India Meteorological Department has therefore been closely monitoring the development of El Nino throughout 2026. The government has also clarified that there is no officially recognised meteorological category called “Super El Nino”; El Nino events are generally classified according to their strength.

So, what happened to India's monsoon in 2026?

This is where the concern becomes more immediate. India's 2026 monsoon was highly uneven. Rainfall was particularly weak during June, improved considerably in July and then weakened again in August and September.

According to The Indian Express, rainfall across India was 38% below normal in June, while July recorded rainfall close to normal. August then ended with a 16.3% deficit. By September 13, cumulative rainfall for the four-month monsoon season was about 14.7% below the long-period average. The latest end-of-season figures reported by The Indian Express put the overall monsoon deficit at about 13%, making 2026 India's driest monsoon in more than a decade. This matters because agriculture cannot simply compensate for rainfall that did not arrive when crops needed it.

A farmer may receive heavy rain in one week, but that does not necessarily make up for several weeks of inadequate rainfall earlier in the crop cycle. This is one reason why the timing and distribution of rainfall matter almost as much as the total amount of rain.

Why does El Nino reduce India's rainfall?

The easiest way to understand this is through air and moisture. Normally, winds over the tropical Pacific move warm surface water westward. During El Nino, those patterns weaken or change because the eastern and central Pacific becomes unusually warm. That alters the larger circulation of air around the tropics. For India, this can weaken some of the atmospheric conditions that normally help bring moisture from the Indian Ocean towards the subcontinent. The result can be less rainfall, longer dry periods and higher temperatures. During the 2026 monsoon, The Indian Express reported that weakening winds associated with El Nino reduced the transport of moisture towards India, contributing to the rainfall deficit.

But there is an important point: El Nino is not the only factor controlling India's monsoon. Indian Ocean conditions, atmospheric circulation, weather systems and other climate patterns also influence rainfall. This is why scientists do not simply say, “El Nino happened, therefore India will have a bad monsoon.” The government has itself stressed that El Nino's impact depends on the evolution of the wider ocean-atmosphere system.

What does a weak monsoon mean for food?

The immediate concern is not that India will suddenly run out of food. The problem is more complicated. A weaker monsoon can affect crop yields, farm incomes, water availability and the cost of producing food. India's major kharif crops — including rice, pulses, soybean, cotton, maize and several vegetables — depend heavily on monsoon conditions.

If rainfall is insufficient or badly distributed, farmers may have to plant less, replant crops, use additional irrigation or accept lower yields. That can eventually affect the amount of food available in markets. And when supply becomes tighter while demand remains broadly stable, prices can come under pressure. This is how a weather event can eventually become a food-price problem.

But India's problem is bigger than El Nino

This is an important part of Jaishankar's warning. The External Affairs Minister was not warning about an India-only El Nino crisis. His concern was about a global food supply problem created by several pressures coming together.

Three major risks are converging.

1. A stronger El Nino

India is already dealing with the consequences of a weak monsoon. The IMD has said El Nino conditions intensified during 2026 and could strengthen further during the October-December period, potentially reaching the very strong category. A stronger El Nino could also affect agricultural production in other parts of the world. That matters because India does not produce every food commodity domestically in sufficient quantities. India imports significant quantities of commodities such as edible oils, for example.

2. Fertiliser shortages

Modern agriculture depends heavily on fertilisers. Fertilisers help farmers obtain higher yields from the same amount of land. But fertiliser production and transportation depend on natural gas, energy and international trade. Geopolitical conflicts can disrupt those supplies. Jaishankar specifically highlighted fertiliser shortages in his warning about the coming months. If fertilisers become more expensive or harder to obtain, the cost of farming can rise. In some countries, shortages can also reduce crop production.

3. Disrupted grain shipments

Food does not simply move from farms to consumers. It travels through ports, ships, roads, storage facilities and international trading networks. Wars and geopolitical tensions can disrupt these routes. That can increase shipping and insurance costs, delay supplies or make certain commodities more expensive. Jaishankar warned that disruptions to grain shipments, combined with fertiliser shortages and climate risks, could put additional pressure on food security in the coming months.

Why is India particularly vulnerable?

India has a large population and a huge agricultural economy. That makes food availability and food prices extremely important. A poor monsoon does not automatically create a food crisis because India has several buffers. The country maintains foodgrain stocks and has policy tools to manage supplies. India can also use imports, exports and government procurement to respond to shortages in particular commodities.

A recent CareEdge assessment noted that India entered the weak-monsoon period with relatively strong reservoir levels, substantial foodgrain stocks and government contingency measures, which can provide some protection against the impact of a poor monsoon. So the situation should not be understood as India being on the verge of running out of food. The bigger concern is what happens if several pressures continue simultaneously.

The real concern: food inflation

For an ordinary household, the first visible impact of a food-supply shock may not be empty shelves. It may be higher prices. Consider a simple example. Suppose rainfall reduces the production of pulses. Farmers harvest less. Traders have less produce to buy. The government may have to release stocks or increase imports. If global prices are also rising, imported supplies become more expensive. Eventually, consumers could pay more for dal. The same chain can operate with vegetables, edible oils, cereals and other food products.

That is why economists and policymakers watch rainfall not only as a weather issue but also as an inflation risk.

Food prices are already showing signs of pressure

The concern is not purely theoretical. The Sources reported in September that the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's food price index had risen to 133.3 points in August, its highest level since November 2022. Vegetable oils were particularly under pressure, while global cereal prices were also rising. The newspaper linked the changing global picture to factors including declining stocks, geopolitical disruptions and a strengthening El Nino. This does not mean every food item in India will suddenly become expensive.

Different crops respond differently to weather conditions, and government stocks and imports can soften the impact. But it means the international environment is becoming less comfortable at precisely the time India is dealing with a weak monsoon.

What happens to the next winter crop?

This is perhaps the most important question for the coming months. The monsoon crop is not the end of India's agricultural calendar. After the monsoon comes the rabi season, when farmers grow crops such as wheat, mustard, chickpea, peas and several vegetables.

A strong El Nino can also influence temperatures. If the coming winter is warmer than normal, crops that need cooler conditions could face additional stress. Some sources reported that forecasts point towards a potentially very strong El Nino during the coming months, raising concerns for the upcoming rabi season, including wheat, mustard, chickpea, potato, onion and other crops. This is one reason why the next few months matter. India is moving from one agricultural season into another at a time when weather and global supply risks are both elevated.

Does this mean India is heading for a food crisis?

Not necessarily. That distinction is important. Jaishankar's warning was about the possibility of a major global food crisis, driven by the combination of geopolitical conflicts, fertiliser shortages, disrupted grain trade and climate risks. India faces risks from the same global environment, but it also has substantial domestic food production, government stocks and policy mechanisms. The immediate concern is therefore better described as higher pressure on food supplies and prices, rather than an inevitable food shortage. Much will depend on what happens to global grain and fertiliser markets, India's winter crop, reservoir levels, government intervention and the strength and duration of El Nino.

What should Indians watch over the next few months?

There are five things that will provide a clearer picture: First, the strength of El Nino. If it continues strengthening, the risks to weather patterns increase. Second, the rabi sowing season. How much wheat, pulses, mustard and other winter crops are planted — and under what weather conditions — will be crucial. Third is global fertiliser prices and availability. A prolonged supply disruption could increase the cost of agricultural production. The Fourth is global grain prices and trade routes. Any major disruption to international supplies could quickly affect import-dependent markets. Fifth is Indian food prices, If wholesale and retail prices of cereals, pulses, edible oils and vegetables begin rising together, the pressure on household budgets could become more visible.

The bigger lesson from El Nino

El Nino is ultimately a reminder that food security is no longer only an agricultural issue. A change in ocean temperatures can affect rainfall. Rainfall can affect crops. Crops can affect food supplies. Geopolitical conflicts can disrupt fertiliser and grain trade. Energy prices can affect farming and transportation. And all of these can eventually reach the consumer through the price of food. That is why Jaishankar's warning is broader than a warning about the weather.

India's 2026 monsoon has already shown how a climate event can put pressure on agriculture. The question now is whether the world can avoid several separate problems: weak harvests, expensive fertilisers, disrupted trade and stronger El Nino conditions, turning into one larger food-supply shock.

For Indian households, the issue to watch in the coming months may therefore be less about whether the country suddenly runs out of food and more about how much it costs to put food on the table.