Geopolitical Tensions Unlikely to Impact India's Energy Supplies Immediately

India is unlikely to face any immediate energy supply concerns despite fresh geopolitical tensions escalating in West Asia, as the country is well-positioned to meet its near-term energy requirements with adequate crude inventories and diversified sourcing, according to industry experts and reports.

The renewed tensions are likely to push up crude oil prices and increase procurement costs for September and October, according to experts.

However, they noted that India's immediate energy security remains intact as the country has already secured crude oil supplies for August and tied up liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports.

While some challenges could emerge in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies if the disruption persists, these are expected to remain manageable, they added.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely disrupted on Sunday, with vessel traffic slowing sharply following the latest escalation in the conflict.

Experts said the global oil market is better positioned to absorb supply shocks than during the earlier phase of the conflict, supported by higher production from non-OPEC producers and India's efforts to diversify its crude import sources.

Brent crude rose more than 4 per cent to around $80 per barrel on Monday as markets reacted to the renewed geopolitical tensions.

Earlier, Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said India has crude oil stocks sufficient for about 60 days, LNG inventories for 60 days and LPG stocks for 45 days.

Officials said there are no immediate plans to reverse the easing of restrictions on LPG and natural gas supplies to industrial users despite the latest escalation.

Experts said the renewed disruption could add a risk premium of $10-$15 per barrel to crude oil prices, potentially pushing Brent crude to the $80-$85 per barrel range.

The latest escalation came after the US and Iran exchanged fresh military strikes on Sunday following Tehran's attack on a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz, further clouding prospects for a diplomatic resolution and raising concerns over global energy supplies.