Kerala landslides: Result of climate wrath or human avarice?

The landslide atlas, published by the National Remote Sensing Center of the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) in 2023, revealed that 10 of the 30 districts in India that are most prone to landslides are in in the south Indian state of Kerala, with Wayanad ranking 13th.

According to scientists, a combination of excessive mining, loss of forest cover, and climate change may be the reason for the catastrophic June 30 landslides in the otherwise picturesque district of Wayanad, known for its lush green hills dotted with tea and coffee plantations.

Based on a study in 2021 on India's landslide hotspots, the plantation areas in Kerala accounted for 59% of the total landslides in the country.

A 2022 study on Wayanad's declining forest cover revealed that between 1950 and 2018, 62% of the district's woods vanished while the area's plantation cover increased by almost 1,800%.

Another study published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, found that until the 1950s, almost 85% of Wayanad's total land area was covered by forests.

The terrain has become more vulnerable as forests disappear, particularly in parts of the Western Ghats that frequently observe intense rainfall.

In the Wayanad district of Kerala, severe rains on July 30 caused multiple landslides that have left more than 150 people dead and about 200 injured, with hundreds more unaccounted for as massive rescue operations continue. According to the India Meteorological Department, more heavy precipitation is expected in several areas of the state throughout the next two days. The situation is expected to worsen.

S. Abhilash, the director of Cochin University of Science and Technology's (CUSAT) Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research, highlighted the Arabian Sea's warming as one of the reasons behind the state's abnormally intense and erratic rainfall patterns.

"Our research found that the southeast Arabian Sea is becoming warmer, causing the atmosphere above this region, including Kerala, to become thermodynamically unstable," he said.

According to Abhilash, scientists have observed a pattern of deep cloud systems forming as a result of the Arabian Sea warming. This leads to very intense rainstorms occurring over shorter periods of time, which raises the possibility of landslides, particularly when they invade land.

He claimed that after the 2019 Kerala floods, when around 80 landslides occurred in the span of two days, killing around 121 people across the state, and over 2 lakh people were directly affected by the flood and were shifted to 1,318 relief camps in different parts of Kerala, this pattern of rainfall has been witnessed.

Research by Abhilash and scientists published in the Climate and Atmospheric Science journal in 2022 revealed that the west coast of India was experiencing more convective rainfall, or powerful downpours that came in shorter bursts.

Ecologists Madhav Gadgil and other government-appointed members of the "Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel" have suggested that the Wayanad hill ranges be designated as ecologically sensitive since 2011.

The panel also suggested the area should be zoned according to ecological sensitivity, with the most vulnerable areas required to be watched over and shielded from a plethora of commercial activity.

In ecologically vulnerable zone 1, they suggested prohibiting mining, quarrying, new thermal power plants, hydropower projects, and large-scale wind energy projects.

Even after 14 years, the panel's recommendations remain unimplemented because of opposition from local communities, businesses, and state governments.