How can it end? An outline of a possible deal with Ukraine Russia was isolated diplomatically under the Biden administration

US President says he wants to “make a deal” to “STOP this ridiculous war” in Ukraine WASHINGTON (AP) — U. S. President Donald Trump said Monday he wants to “make a deal” to “STOP this ridiculous war” in Ukraine, raising hopes that three years of fighting could end in talks after his call with Russian President Vladimir Putin and ahead of U. S. -Russian officials’ planned meeting in Saudi Arabia this week.

There’s little Ukraine can do to reverse Russia’s recent military successes. So any deal is likely to involve Ukraine making painful concessions — which could be seen as Trump approving of Putin’s bullying. It also means Russia will almost certainly be driving a hard bargain.

Because of war spending, and the fact that the military is losing 1, 000 or more soldiers a day, the Russian economy is at risk of spiraling out of control.

The talks would be very hard. Many doubt Putin is sincere, and Europe and Ukraine fear Trump will be tempted to do a deal with the Kremlin over their heads.

But the last direct talks between Russia and Ukraine, in the spring of 2022, did result in some progress toward a deal. And some analysts think it would be possible to reach a deal that would satisfy Putin and somehow preserve Ukraine’s security and sovereignty.

Who's at the table?

Biden’s administration had insisted that any talks on Ukraine’s future had to include the Ukrainian people in an effort to isolate Russia diplomatically. In his long phone call with Putin Wednesday, Trump departed from that strategy by saying he would “inform” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of the conversation.

Right now, Ukraine stands alone. Zelenskyy said he wasn’t invited to take part in talks between Trump’s top aides and their Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia this week.

Europe may also be excluded, even though the bloc has provided Ukraine more aid than the U. S. since the conflict began — about $140 billion.

NATO and the EU

Ukraine has said warding off further Russian aggression is as important to its future security as reclaiming the territory Russia has seized.

According to Ukraine, NATO membership is key to this defense. Russia describes the prospect of Ukraine’s accession to the alliance as an existential threat to its own security.

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Compromise could mean Ukraine can join EU but not NATO Russian negotiators agreed to wording in the draft treaty saying the agreement would be “compatible with Ukraine’s possible membership in the European Union” before 2022 peace talks fail.

Ceasefire Mechanics

The stipulations of a cease-fire deal will likely determine how long any peace holds. Three big concerns, says Thomas Greminger, a former Swiss diplomat who helped monitor the cease-fire in eastern Ukraine after 2015.

First, he said, is the “line of contact” between Russian-held and Ukrainian-controlled territory. A “disengagement zone” — a buffer — between the opposing forces would then be needed to prevent misunderstandings or stray gunfire from escalating into actual combat. Third, he said, there must be a mechanism to hold both parties accountable for violations of the cease-fire.

Greminger, now director of the Geneva Center for Security Policy, said the wording of the agreements “could be very technical” on issues like the disengagement zone and cease-fire enforcement.