El Niño 2026: India Faces Growing Risks of Drought, Food Inflation and Water Stress

India is preparing for the possible effects of a strengthening El Niño, a climate phenomenon that influences global temperatures, winds and rainfall patterns. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the current El Niño is expected to peak in December 2026 and is almost certain to continue until February 2027. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates below-normal rainfall across much of the country between October and December.

The warning follows a deficient southwest monsoon in 2026, which recorded a rainfall shortfall of approximately 12.6 per cent. The deficit was particularly severe in East and Northeast India, where rainfall was 26 per cent below normal, and the South Peninsula, which recorded a 24 per cent shortfall.

El Niño occurs when surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean rise above normal, often weakening India’s summer monsoon. Its effects vary between events, but prolonged dry conditions and higher temperatures can increase evaporation, reduce soil moisture and place additional pressure on water resources.

Reservoir storage has already raised concerns. According to the Central Water Commission’s September 24 bulletin, water levels in 178 major reservoirs stood at around 70 per cent of capacity, below the 10-year average of 76.62 per cent. Several states have also declared drought conditions, including Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.

Economic Consequences and India’s Preparedness

The potential effects extend beyond rainfall and water availability. Agriculture is particularly vulnerable because pulses and oilseeds depend heavily on rain-fed cultivation. Reduced production could increase food prices and create challenges for food security, although India’s foodgrain buffer stocks offer some protection.

Fisheries may also face disruption. Research institutions have warned that El Niño-related warming could contribute to marine heatwaves in the northern Indian Ocean in 2027, affecting fish populations and coastal livelihoods. Meanwhile, declining reservoir levels could constrain hydropower generation as higher temperatures increase electricity demand for cooling.

India has introduced several preparedness measures, including district-level agricultural contingency plans, weather advisories and coordination among ministries responsible for agriculture, power, health, water and rural development. However, translating forecasts into timely local action remains a challenge.

Effective preparedness requires integrated water management, groundwater recharge, rainwater harvesting and restoration of local water bodies. Agriculture can become more resilient through drought-tolerant crops, millets, suitable pulses and improved access to seeds and irrigation.

District administrations and Gram Panchayats can also help monitor drinking-water availability, identify vulnerable households and communicate early warnings.

Ultimately, India needs to move from responding to climate-related losses towards anticipating them. Coordinated action before drought conditions worsen will be essential to protect livelihoods, stabilise food supplies and strengthen resilience through the coming summer.