India gears up to be world’s no. 4 electric car hub by 2030 but faces fierce price war with China

India is poised to emerge as the world’s fourth-largest electric car manufacturing powerhouse by 2030, but unless it dramatically cuts costs, it risks being steamrolled by China’s overwhelming dominance, warns New York-based think tank Rhodium Group.

In a landmark forecast, Rhodium projects India’s electric four-wheeler production capacity will surge more than tenfold — from 200,000 units today to 2.5 million units by 2030 — trailing only China, Europe, and the United States. Yet, domestic demand won’t keep pace, leaving a massive oversupply of up to 2.1 million vehicles annually, it said in its Global Clean Investment Monitor report.

“This gap signals a huge export opportunity, but Indian automakers must slash costs aggressively to compete with China’s low-cost EV juggernaut,” the report warns. “The government’s ‘Make in India for the World’ vision hinges on that.”

India’s projected domestic EV demand will climb to just 400,000–1.4 million units by 2030, up from a mere 100,000 this year. Despite booming production, EVs will likely account for only 7–23% of India’s total four-wheeler sales by the end of the decade.

Meanwhile, Tata Motors, MG Motor, and Mahindra command a dominant 90% of India’s domestic EV market today, according to Vahan data. But globally, India’s production scale still pales in comparison: China will churn out an eye-watering 29 million EVs annually by 2030, Europe 9 million, and the US 6 million.

However, India has carved a distinct path through a mix of industrial policy, protectionism, and targeted incentives. High import duties of 70-100% on fully built EVs have shielded domestic manufacturers, though they’ve also limited consumer choice and kept prices elevated. Virtually all EVs sold in India today are locally built.

On the battery front — a key driver of EV competitiveness — India has made “remarkable strides,” Rhodium noted. It’s emerging as the largest module producer outside China, Europe, and the US, with multiple plants under construction or recently announced. But challenges remain: India’s cell production capacity will still trail far behind global leaders like China (projected at 4,818 GWh by 2030) and the US (1,169 GWh), with India grouped in the rest-of-world category at 567 GWh.

“India’s EV sector has built impressive momentum in a short time, but the window to scale globally is rapidly closing,” the report cautions. “Beating China on cost will be the make-or-break factor.”