IMF poised to lift India growth outlook as Q3 outperforms expectations

India’s economic momentum is set to draw fresh endorsement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with a possible upward revision in the country’s growth forecast after third-quarter expansion exceeded expectations.

The IMF has signalled that India remains central to sustaining global growth, underlining the economy’s resilience at a time of moderated expansion worldwide. In its earlier Article IV staff report, the Fund had projected India’s GDP growth at 6.6% for 2025–26, largely driven by robust domestic consumption.

That outlook may now be revisited. India’s better-than-expected performance in the third quarter has strengthened the case for an upgrade when the IMF releases its World Economic Outlook (WEO) January update in the coming days.

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack described India as a standout performer among major economies, calling it a key driver of global growth. “The bottom line for us on India is that it has been a key driver of global growth, and growth has been quite robust,” she said.

The Fund’s assessment reflects continued confidence in India’s economic fundamentals, supported by strong consumer demand, steady investment activity and a stable policy environment. Analysts say a higher IMF growth projection would further cement India’s status as one of the fastest-growing large economies in the world.

Globally, the IMF had marginally raised its 2025 growth forecast to 3.2% in October, from an earlier estimate of 3.0 per cent, after the impact of US tariffs proved less disruptive than anticipated. The 2026 global growth outlook remains unchanged at 3.1%.

Even as global growth stays moderate, India’s sustained expansion continues to provide a critical lift to the world economy—an influence the IMF is now expected to formally acknowledge in its upcoming update.